Vietnam's economy is forecast to grow by 6.8% in 2025, according to a report released by the World Bank on Wednesday.

However, the report also highlighted the risks posed by the uncertain global trade environment, which could affect the country’s export-driven economy.

This GDP forecast is below the Vietnamese government’s official growth target of at least 8.0% for this year, and also falls short of last year’s growth rate of 7.09%.

While the country continues to show solid economic performance, external factors, particularly fluctuations in global trade, could influence the pace of future growth, Reuters news agency reports.

The World Bank predicted that export growth would slow to 12.1% this year, down from 14% in 2024, with further deceleration expected in 2026 due to anticipated slowdowns in China and the US, as well as the uncertain global trade outlook.

Inflation is projected to be 3.5% for this year.

Vietnam’s export-dependent economy faces significant risks from the US imposing tariffs on its trading partners, along with the potential for an escalating global trade war.

“On the other hand, increased public investment could further support demand and contribute to growth,” said World Bank economist Sacha Dray during the launch of the report.

“An accelerated recovery in the real estate market thanks to faster project clearance could further boost domestic demand.”

In addition, the forecast anticipates that economic growth will further slow to 6.5% next year.

Despite the Vietnamese government’s growth target for the year being an ambitious 8.0%, it may face challenges in meeting this goal if global trade conditions remain uncertain.