Multiple international organisations have reduced their growth projections for Vietnam’s economy from approximately 7% to a range of 6% to 6.2% in 2025, citing global policy uncertainties and a slowdown in exports amid rising trade tensions.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts Vietnam’s economy will grow by 6.2% this year and 6% in the following year.

Despite the revised forecast, Vietnam continues to be one of the economies with the strongest growth outlook for the coming year, with projections notably higher than those of other countries in the region.

This optimism is supported by strong private consumption and public investment, according to the OECD.

Nevertheless, ongoing volatility in the global trade environment is expected to dampen overall economic momentum, Vietnam Plus reports.

The OECD stated that Vietnam’s fiscal policy will keep supporting growth by accelerating public investment but cautioned that rising inflationary pressures could lead to a shift toward a more neutral fiscal stance.

Since June 2023, the State Bank of Vietnam has maintained an expansionary monetary policy, including interest rate cuts and credit growth targets. While this approach is expected to continue, the OECD recommended closely monitoring inflation risks linked to planned increases in pensions and minimum wages.

Whereas in a recent report on Vietnam’s economy, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) highlighted that the Vietnamese Dong has weakened significantly since the US introduced new reciprocal tariff measures in early April.

While the State Bank of Vietnam may consider easing monetary policies, the ongoing depreciation of the Dong remains a key concern.

UOB anticipates that the central bank will keep its refinancing rate steady at 4.5%. The bank noted that a reduction to pre-pandemic levels of 4% or lower could happen if the labour market weakens and the foreign exchange market stabilises.

In addition, UOB has downgraded Vietnam’s growth forecast for 2025 to 6%, down from its previous estimate of 7%.