Vietnam’s economy will likely make a strong rally from the end of Q3, similar to how the country recovered after lockdown restrictions were eased in April last year.

According to Dorsati Madani, Senior Economist at the World Bank (WB) Vietnam, although the country is facing a series of economic risks due to the impact of the pandemic, the economy is dynamic and resilient. Indeed, Vietnam sustained positive economic growth in 2020.

Madani also said she’s confident the economy will rebound in the future due to a recovery in its major markets including the United States, China and the EU.

Last month the World Bank predicted Vietnam’s GDP to grow by around 4.8% this year, two percentage points lower than last December’s forecast.

“Whether Vietnam’s economy will rebound in the second half of 2021 will depend on the control of the current COVID-19 outbreak, the effective vaccine rollout, and the efficiency of the fiscal measures to support affected business and households, and to stimulate the recovery,” said Rahul Kitchlu, WB Acting Country Director for Vietnam.

“While downside risks have heightened, economic fundamentals remain solid in Vietnam, and the economy could converge toward the pre-pandemic GDP growth rate of 6.5% to 7% from 2022 onward.”

The country’s economic recovery in Q4 will depend on the government’s ability to contain coronavirus, highlighting the urgency of vaccination. The World Bank recommended the government implements more measures to bolster domestic demand and accelerate public investment disbursement, as well as the introduction of supportive packages for citizens, enterprises and household businesses.

The World Bank is awaiting figures from the General Statistics Office at the end of September, as well as the government’s decision on reopening the economy, to revise its GDP forecast.